Khamenei’s escalating repression reveals a deep fear of revolt and regime collapse.

Basij paramilitary forces patrol the streets at night amid heightened security crackdowns across Iranian cities – July 2025

#Iran

Iran currently faces a dangerous combination of growing internal popular unrest and increasing international isolation

In this context, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has notably intensified repression.

It is no longer limited to street protesters: it now also targets figures within the regime’s own political system.

Reports released by government-linked media and confirmed arrests show a clear pattern: the leadership acts driven by intense fear and a sense of desperation.

Commentators close to the government openly admit that the upcoming elections for local councils risk extremely low turnout, possibly less than 10%.

This would mean councils representing only a small fraction of society, something around 2% or 3% of the population.

State media even describes the situation as a “fire under the ashes,” that is, discontent that could explode at any moment and turn into social, economic, and even security crises.

Within the regime’s elites, the alarm is palpable.

Recent protests are no longer seen as mere economic grievances or calls for controlled reforms.

A former Iranian ambassador, speaking on state television, described the acts as an open revolt aimed at overthrowing the entire system.

This language makes it clear that, internally, the government sees a direct threat to Khamenei’s power.

In parliament, tensions between factions are evident, with internal disputes, pressure, and growing public distrust.

One deputy even questioned aloud why the regime continues to “tell big lies to the people,” invoking Khamenei’s own demand for “unity.”

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Most revealing, however, is that the repression is now targeting the regime’s own camp.

A new wave of arrests has targeted activists considered reformist, historical figures such as Azar Mansouri, Ebrahim Asgharzadeh, and Mohsen Aminzadeh.

News agencies linked to the Revolutionary Guard confirmed the arrests, carried out in a joint operation between the Revolutionary Guard’s intelligence services and the Ministry of Intelligence.

The accusations are serious and far-reaching: “undermining national cohesion,” “coordinating with enemy propaganda,” and even “creating secret mechanisms for the overthrow of the government.” The use of this type of language against people who were previously tolerated within the system indicates that the margin for any kind of dissent, even controlled dissent, is rapidly diminishing.

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Official media coverage itself reinforces this sense of insecurity.

Terms like “sedition,” “instability,” and “fire under the ashes” appear frequently, signaling that the establishment is preparing for something worse.

Meanwhile, the economy is sinking: unpaid debts from non-oil exports reach approximately US$85 billion, the exchange rate has skyrocketed, and the prices of many products have risen between 30% and 50%.

On the international stage, the regime maintains an intransigent stance on the nuclear issue, rejecting any idea of “””zero enrichment,” which only deepens its isolation and sanctions.

This expansion of repression demonstrates not strength, but vulnerability.

The regime seems to fear that the population has moved beyond isolated protests and now openly rejects the system as a whole.

Some compare the current situation to what occurred in 1981, when, after the bloody repression of a peaceful protest, then-leader Ruhollah Khomeini launched a nationwide campaign of terror against any opposition, using the war with Iraq as justification.

Today, Khamenei seems to be following a similar path in the face of what voices linked to the regime itself call the threat of “overthrow.” The difference is that now the regime is more internally divided, the opposition is more organized, and the indignation of Iranian society has reached levels never seen in the country’s recent history.

Published in 02/11/2026 16h08

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Text adapted by AI (Grok) and translated via Google API in the English version. Images from public image libraries or credits in the caption.

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