{"id":2769,"date":"2026-02-08T00:58:25","date_gmt":"2026-02-08T00:58:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/israelagora.com.br\/en\/?page_id=2769"},"modified":"2026-02-08T00:58:25","modified_gmt":"2026-02-08T00:58:25","slug":"analise-do-cenario-atual-no-oriente-medio","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/israelagora.com.br\/en\/?page_id=2769","title":{"rendered":"Analysis of the current situation in the middle east"},"content":{"rendered":"
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F-15 in aerial refueling<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>
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\r\n\t#Iran<\/a><\/p>

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\r\n\tThe United States, along with Israel, is planning a long-term military offensive against Iran, based on the assumption that the Iranian regime will respond with an attack on Israel and American bases throughout the Middle East<\/strong><\/p>

Currently, there are at least 19 major US strategic command and base centers in the region (8 of which are permanent bases), including: Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar (CENTCOM headquarters), the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, as well as bases in Syria, Jordan, Iraq, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other countries.\r\n<\/p>

\r\nThe crucial point is that not all of these bases are equipped with advanced, permanent air defense systems.<\/p>

\r\nSome only have short-range defense systems, which are practically useless against ballistic missiles.\r\n<\/p>

\r\nThe extensive deployment of THAAD and Patriot systems (including recent additional deployments in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar) indicates that the Americans are preparing to provide missile defense coverage to nearly all of these bases as part of preparations for a possible Iranian counterattack.\r\n<\/p>

\r\nOn the other hand, the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (which has been in the region since the end of January 2026) is expected to be positioned in the area near the coast of Oman or in the Arabian Sea (black dot on the map).<\/p>

\r\nTo protect it, air defense systems have also been deployed in the United Arab Emirates (route marked in red).\r\n<\/p>

\r\nThe F-15 fighters (including the F-15Es transferred to Jordan) and the F-35 aircraft (British in Cyprus and other American ones) are not primarily configured for offensive missions; Its main mission at the moment is to protect Israel from Iranian Shahed-131\/136 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) (as well as more advanced models, such as the Shahed-139, which have already been shot down by American aircraft in the region).\r\n<\/p>

\r\nThe crucial point here is: the logistics, coordination, and integration of such an extensive network of advanced systems take a long time-and this process is still underway (including the arrival of additional forces, the deployment of defense systems, and preparations to defend against an Iranian response).\r\n<\/p>

\r\nThis delay does not indicate that Trump has changed his mind; contrary to what many commentators, media outlets, journalists, and pseudo-analysts are trying to insinuate.<\/p>

\r\nThe puzzle is still being assembled.\r\n<\/p>

\r\nShahin Modras

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Published in 02\/08\/2026 00h58<\/em><\/p>\r\n

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Portuguese version<\/a><\/em><\/p>\r\n

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Text adapted by AI (Grok) and translated via Google API in the English version. Images from public image libraries or credits in the caption.<\/p>\r\n\t\t

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Reference article:<\/p>\r\n\t\t\r\n\t\t\r\n\r\n\r\n